Japan's Earthquake Stockpile Advice and the Rolling Stock Method

Quick answer: Japan’s government advises every household to keep at least 3 days, and ideally 1 week, of food, water and supplies per person, with 3 litres of water per person per day. The recommended way to do it is rolling stock (Tokyo calls it “daily stockpiling”): buy a little more of what you normally eat, use the oldest first and replace it. Since August 2024, Japan has also issued special Nankai Trough megaquake advisories that ask people to check their preparations for about a week.

Japan has some of the world’s most practical household advice, shaped by repeated large earthquakes. Here is what it asks, why, and what anyone can borrow from it.

What Japan’s government recommends

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries publishes a food stock guide for disasters. It says households should keep at least 3 days and ideally a week of food for every person. Some areas, depending on their local hazard map, may want 2 weeks.

The guide explains the reasoning in plain terms:

Relief supplies may take more than 3 days to arrive after a disaster.
Restoring lifelines such as power, water and gas has often taken more than a week.
Shops may be empty for around a week if roads and deliveries are disrupted.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government gives the same message: aim for at least three days first, then plan for a week and beyond. It also expects that people whose homes are safe will stay and live at home after a big quake, rather than go to a shelter. That is why the stock matters.

How long might services be out in Tokyo?

Tokyo’s stockpile leaflet uses a 2022 damage estimate for a large earthquake directly under the capital. In that scenario, restoring services could take roughly:

Service	Days to restore (estimate)
Electricity	4 days
Phone and data	4 days
Water and sewerage	21 days
City gas	42 days

The same estimate expects up to 2.2 million people in evacuation centres and around 10 million living at home in difficult conditions.

The rolling stock method, explained

The rolling stock idea is simple. Instead of filling a box with special “emergency food” that you forget about, you keep a little extra of the food and daily items you already use.

Buy a bit more of the food you normally eat: rice, noodles, tinned food, retort pouches, drinks, snacks.
Eat or use the oldest first.
Replace what you used on your next shop.
Check once a year. Tokyo names 19 November “Stockpile Day” as a reminder to review everything.

Because you are eating your stockpile all the time, nothing expires unnoticed and nothing is wasted. Tokyo says this approach is easier to keep going than a separate emergency store. It also means your family will be eating familiar food during a stressful time.

Our guide to food rotation (first in, first out) shows how to set up the same system at home.

Tokyo’s example list

Tokyo’s leaflet gives an example for one family: a father, mother, infant and elderly woman in a detached house. Some of the main items:

Water: 3 litres per person per day
Food: pre-washed rice (4 kg), packs of ready-cooked rice, tins, retort meals, dried and instant noodles, vegetable juice, snacks
Cooking: 2 gas cartridge stoves and 8 cartridges
Toilets: portable toilet kits for about 45 uses
Light and news: 2 torches, at least 3 LED lanterns, head torches and a hand-crank radio
Hygiene and health: a first-aid kit, household medicines, wet wipes, masks and toilet paper
Special needs: nappies, baby milk and baby food, soft food for older people, hearing-aid batteries

The leaflet stresses that the right amounts depend on your family and home. Tokyo’s online “Stockpile Navi” tool helps people work out their own list.

Where households fall short

A Cabinet Office survey reported in October 2025 found that about 70% of respondents had at least 3 litres of drinking water per person per day for three days, and about 60% had stored food. Only about 28% had emergency toilets. A Cabinet Office official described household supplies overall as not adequate.

Toilets are easy to forget. If water and sewers are down for weeks, as Tokyo’s estimate suggests, a stock of toilet bags and absorbent kits matters as much as food.

The Nankai Trough megaquake advisory system

The Nankai Trough is a plate boundary off Japan’s Pacific coast, running from Suruga Bay to the sea off Hyuga-Nada. Large earthquakes there have caused major damage in the past, including in 1944 and 1946.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) can issue Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information when the chance of a large quake is judged higher than usual. A JMA and Cabinet Office leaflet, issued in August 2025, explains the two main levels:

Level	When it is issued	What people are asked to do
Megathrust Earthquake Alert	An M8.0+ quake on the plate boundary	Follow official instructions; people in areas where tsunami evacuation would be too slow evacuate for one week
Megathrust Earthquake Attention	An M7.0–8.0 quake on the plate boundary, or certain other events	Carry on with daily life but recheck furniture, supplies and evacuation plans

August 2024: the first advisory

On 8 August 2024, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck off Kyushu, near Miyazaki. The JMA issued its first megaquake advisory. People were asked to stay calm, carry on, and check their preparations. Some beaches closed and some events were cancelled during the busy Obon holiday.

On 15 August 2024 the special caution was lifted. Tokyo’s governor reminded residents to keep checking furniture, evacuation routes and food and water stocks.

2025–2026 updates

March 2025: the government’s Central Disaster Management Council published revised worst-case estimates. A Nankai Trough quake late at night in winter could kill up to 298,000 people, most from tsunami, with up to 12.3 million evacuees and economic losses of about ¥292 trillion. Much faster evacuation would sharply cut tsunami deaths.
September 2025: the government’s Earthquake Research Committee revised its 30-year probability. One method now gives 60% to 94.5% or higher; another gives 20% to 50%. The committee did not say which is better.
August 2025: the JMA and Cabinet Office issued an updated multilingual leaflet on the advisory system.
November 2026: Japan’s new Disaster Management Agency opens on 2 November. The minister preparing it, Goshi Hosono, said it would issue an urgent request on day one asking households to keep food, water and portable toilets for at least 3 days, preferably a week, with progress to be checked by the end of the year.

What this means for you, wherever you live

You do not need to live on a fault line to use Japan’s approach.

Start with 3 days, then a week. Japan’s reasoning about slow relief and empty shops applies to floods, storms and long blackouts too. Our 30-day food stockpile guide helps if you want to go further.
Rotate, don’t hoard. Rolling stock works on any budget. See stockpiling on a budget.
Plan water at 3 litres per person per day. Our water storage guide covers containers and shelf life.
Add a toilet plan. It is the item most households miss.
Secure heavy furniture if you live anywhere with earthquakes.

Curious how your household compares? See how many days your household would last.

Checklist

Water: 3 litres per person per day, for at least 3 days
Food you normally eat for at least 3 days, aiming for a week
A rolling system: oldest first, replace on the next shop
A gas cartridge stove and spare cartridges (for outdoor or well-ventilated use)
Portable toilet kits and toilet paper
Torches, a lantern and a hand-crank or battery radio
Medicines, a first-aid kit and items for babies, older people and pets
Heavy furniture fixed to walls
A yearly check date (Tokyo uses 19 November)

If you live in Japan, follow your city’s guidance and any JMA advisory. Elsewhere, check your national emergency agency for local advice.

Sources & further reading

Every fact in this post was checked against the sources listed above on 1 November 2026. Advice changes: always follow your local authorities.